The European Union is expecting one of its weakest apple harvests in recent years. Production is forecast to fall by 15.6% compared with the previous season, with the sharpest declines expected in Poland and France.
Apple production in the European Union’s leading producing countries is estimated at 9,496,047 tonnes in 2026, according to data from the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA), presented at the Prognosfruit conference in Germany.
Compared with the final figure for the previous season, production is expected to decline by 15.6%, while the forecast crop is 14.3% below the average of the past three years. This is the first estimate for the 2026/2027 season and may be revised depending on weather conditions through to the end of the harvest.
The smaller crop is the result of a combination of adverse weather conditions across different production areas. Orchards were hit by severe frosts between February and late April, followed by prolonged heatwaves, drought, localised hailstorms and heavy rainfall. In some production areas, unfavourable temperatures and water shortages are still affecting fruit development.
Poland remains the largest producer despite a 30% drop
The sharpest decline is expected in Poland, which will remain the European Union’s largest apple producer despite its considerably smaller crop. Production is forecast at 2,665,000 tonnes, down 29.9% from last year and 27.1% below the three-year average.
France is expected to produce 1,162,000 tonnes of apples, a decline of 24.2%. Germany’s crop is forecast at 1,013,000 tonnes, 10.9% lower than in the previous season, although still 3% above the three-year average.
Italy is expected to produce 2,269,000 tonnes of apples. This represents a decline of just 2.2% compared with last year, allowing Italy to remain the European Union’s second-largest producer.
A significant decrease is also forecast in Belgium, where production is expected to fall by 25.1%, and in the Netherlands, where the crop is set to decline by 17.5%. Hungary is expecting a harvest of 135,000 tonnes, 20.6% less than last season and as much as 61.4% below the three-year average.
By contrast, Greek production could reach 291,000 tonnes, an increase of 53.6%. Spain is expecting growth of 7.5%, while larger crops are also forecast in Croatia, Slovakia and Slovenia.
Golden Delicious and Gala record the largest declines
Among the leading varieties, Golden Delicious production is estimated at 1,809,982 tonnes, a decline of 11.1%. Gala, the second most widely produced variety, is expected to reach 1,362,797 tonnes, down 8.9% from last year.
Red Delicious production is forecast at 496,522 tonnes, representing a decline of 5.3%. An even sharper drop is expected for Idared, with production forecast at 415,559 tonnes, 19.7% lower than in the previous season.
Particularly steep declines are forecast for varieties important to Polish growers. Ligol production is expected to fall by 35%, Red Jonaprince by 37.7%, Jonagored by 33%, Jonagold by 27.4% and Shampion by 21.9%.
These figures show that the decline is not evenly distributed and that its impact will depend on the country, production area and varietal structure.
Climate risks are increasingly determining yields
WAPA warns that this year’s decline reflects the growing pressure on apple growers. In addition to extreme weather events, production is being affected by rising costs and the shrinking range of available solutions for safeguarding yields and fruit quality.
The forecasts are based on orchard conditions at the beginning of August and represent the first estimate of this year’s harvest. Final volumes will depend on weather conditions through to the end of the harvest, as well as fruit size and quality.
What is already clear, however, is that Europe is entering the new season with considerably fewer apples than last year. A decline of almost 1.8 million tonnes compared with the previous season shows just how vulnerable production and yields have become to frost, drought, high temperatures and other climate extremes.
